Relief At The Butcher? Beef Prices Show Signs Of Easing

Some promising government data show retail ground beef prices have begun to stall in the second half of the year, offering relief to consumers who have watched beef prices soar month after month. Prices still remain near record highs as the Trump administration seeks to ease the nation's most severe cattle shortage in a generation. 

Bloomberg reports that ground beef prices fell 1.3% in September, the biggest monthly decline since 2024. Prices fell to an average of $7.062 a pound in September, down from August's record of $7.16. 

The outlet cited the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which also showed steak prices sliding for the second consecutive month, down about 1% to $12.69 a pound.

The welcome relief comes in the final inflation reading ahead of the midterms in less than three weeks. President Trump's team has turned to international markets to flood the US with beef supplies to ease high prices, including by allowing up to 300,000 tons of ground beef imports at lower tariff rates and reopening several land ports to Mexican cattle.

The latest trade data show that 24,000 cattle entered through two crossings in Arizona and New Mexico through last Thursday. Imports have remained depressed because of the spread of New World screwworm.

Another promising sign that even more relief is coming is that the Agriculture Department raised its beef import forecasts for 2026 and 2027 last week. Shipments through August rose 15% from the previous year, driven mainly by Australia and Mexico.

Our mid-August report suggested that record ground beef prices at the supermarket may have sparked demand destruction among consumers. This has pushed some consumers to cheaper protein alternatives, such as chicken and pork. 

BofA Securities restaurants and protein analyst Sara Senatore recently wrote in a note about the timetable it will take for the cattle cycle to fto turn finallye bad news: It might take several years (read the note).

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