Murphy: "If The Dollar Starts Sinking, It's Gonna Be Fast"

Mar 20, 2026 ·
Murphy: "If The Dollar Starts Sinking, It's Gonna Be Fast"

Last night’s debate on “Deficits, War, and Markets”  brought together Bob Murphy of the Mises Institute and Bard College professor Randall Wray for a clash between Austrian and MMT worldviews, moderated by the “Macro Tourist” Kevin Muir. 

Exploding U.S. deficits, the Fed’s policy path, the geopolitical shock of the Iran war, what it means for stocks, a potential bond market snap to calls for another financial crisis… we covered a lot of ground and here were some highlights for those short on time:

Where are the bond vigilantes?

A bond trader himself, Muir asked Murphy what it would take to see a crisis-level spike in U.S. Treasury yields. Murphy’s core point is that the conditions for a bond market revolt have already been in place for years—and yet the revolt hasn’t come.

“If you had 15 years ago told me this is what the fiscal position is going to be [$39 trillion in debt]… I would say… there’d be this massive [yield] premium,” he said. “I am surprised at how much leeway investors are giving the US federal government.” But the fact that we’ve made it this far without emerging market-esque bond yields should not comfort USD holders.

Global demand for Treasuries may be eroding at the margin, and the dollar-based world order may unravel quicker than it was established. “There’s lots of countries… saying we need to reduce our exposure to the US dollar… they’re just trying to figure out how.,” Murphy said, particularly in reference to Russia where previous American administrations went trigger happy with sanctions and freezing of foreign dollar reserves. Actions that greatly enhance the risk premium of holding dollar-denominated assets if you’re a foreign government or even a foreign national whose country may one day be on the naughty list.

“If the dollar starts sinking, it’s gonna be fast”

Even the Keynesian thinks a crash is coming…

Self-identifying as a Keynesian economist, Wray nonetheless thinks we can’t maneuver our way out of the coming crash.

Wray’s warning: the system never actually fixed the conditions that led to the last crisis — it consolidated and amplified them. “We wouldn’t have these huge institutions that are… engaged in crazy finance and setting us up for another tremendous financial crash,” he said, if instead after 2008, we’d employed something more akin to Teddy Roosevelt and disintegrated rather than bailed out the big banks. 

“The banks all over the country weren't doing any of the stuff,” Wray argued. “The biggest banks were doing that and got us into trouble.”

“We’re going to have [another crash]… it could be five years… but it’s coming. There’s no doubt at all.” 

Watch the full discussion below or listen on Spotify:

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 19:20