Update (0745ET): It did not take long for the denials to emerge. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency (which is the propaganda arm of the IRGC so take it with lots of salt) said that anonymous Iranian source, Iran is not in contact with Trump adding that “there is no direct or indirect communication with Trump."
“He retreated after hearing that our targets would be all power plants in West Asia,” Fars said. A similar denial came from the semi-official Tasnim news reports which said that Iran is not in talks and there have been no talks with US President Donald Trump. It added that Iran will continue to respond and defend country; Strait of Hormuz won’t return to pre-war status through psychological operations. Trump’s social media statement is “psychological warfare”
“The statements of the US President are part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time for the implementation of his military plans,” state-run Mizan news agency reports, citing a Foreign Ministry statement as saying.
“There are no talks between Tehran and Washington”
“Yes, there are initiatives from regional countries to reduce tensions, and our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all these requests should be referred to Washington.”
Caught between this headline pingpong...
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*IRAN’S TASNIM: THERE HAVE BEEN NO TALKS, THERE ARE NO TALKS
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*IRAN’S TASNIM NEWS CALLS TRUMP COMMENT PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE
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*IRAN’S TASNIM NEWS CITES SENIOR SECURITY OFFICIAL
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*IRAN’S TASNIM: WE WILL CONTINUE TO RESPOND AND DEFEND COUNTRY
Yields are rebounding higher, along with oil as stocks retreat from earlier gains...
So who's lying, and is the truth somewhere inbetween the bombastic headlines?
“This feels very similar to Trump’s tariff playbook — delay, create optionality, and ultimately step back,” said Manish Singh, chief investment officer at Crossbridge Capital.
“If cooler heads prevail, the outcome here could be a shift toward negotiation rather than confrontation.”
The key now will be how Donald Trump takes the Iranian response. There’s a chance he will find the situation embarrassing and that matters to markets because he would be more likely to swing back towards a more belligerent stance.
“The tone is more upbeat now. But it would be naïve to assume the situation will now be resolved to the satisfaction of all the main combatants and victims of hostilities," said Bloomberg macro strategist, Simon White.
"Further, negative effects from higher energy prices are now baked in. Stock dynamics will continue to remain negative while an abundance of potential pitfalls remain ahead.”
And while we wait, let's take a closer look at global markets prior to the Trump headline, they were all sharply led on the downside by KOSPI which plunged 6.5%. China – SHCOMP and SHPROP were lower by 350bps as well with news outlets highlighting China as a % of global GDP is on the decline. Europe holding on a relative basis but major indices (were) down ~200bps. In commodities, European gas continues reverses previously up 5% to $65 to now down 5% to $55 – still essentially doubling vs. a month ago. Crude (was) steady but elevated with WTI approaching $99 (now $85 post headlines … ).
Precious metals (were) weak with gold off 500bps to $4,270 (now approaching flattish). Yields remain the other part of this difficult equation with the 10-year up to 4.43% (now 4.38%) highest levels since July, breaking out above levels earlier in 2026 despite additional rate cuts now potentially back on the table in market expectations. Dollar following with DXY above $100. Bitcoin flattish but closer to local lows $68.6k (now $71.6k). Macro trading likely to dominate trading & price action today, particularly in light on quiet micro backdrop this morning. The only data on deck is the Chicago Fed and Construction Spending. On the data front, we’ll get US construction spending, Eurozone consumer confidence and Japanese CPI later this morning. Fed’s Miran speaks at 8:45am.
Looking at premarket movers away from the non stop newsflow, Mag 7 stocks are higher (Tesla +0.5%, Alphabet +0.6%, Amazon +1.8%, Meta +1.4%, Nvidia +2.1%, Microsoft +1%, Apple +1.6%). Energy stocks are falling and airline stocks are rising after Trump said he told US forces to postpone all strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
- Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) soars 16% after the drug developer provided maintenance data from a mid-stage trial that showed its experimental therapy deepened responses in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis.
- DraftKings (DKNG) gains 8% and Flutter (FLUT) rises 8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that US senators are set to introduce bipartisan legislation to ban sports bets on prediction markets.
- Synopsys (SNPS) gains 3% after people familiar said activist investor Elliott Investment Management has made a multibillion-dollar investment in the chip-design software maker and plans to push for changes.
- Valvoline rises 2% after Stifel raised the recommendation to buy, saying a recent selloff has created a buying opportunity for the automotive services company as concerns about more expensive base oil and gasoline are largely priced into the stock.
In other news, BBG reported that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing sizable orders to purchase mortgage-backed securities. UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said the Iran war could force him to pare back spending, although it won’t fundamentally alter the bank’s overall strategy. Owners of luxury brands ranging from Gucci to Fendi and Bulgari opened more stores in Europe last year despite a slowdown in the wider sector.
Trump’s comments sparked a sharp turnaround in markets after the two sides escalated rhetoric over the weekend, with hours left before a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil prices have fueled fears that central banks may be forced to tighten monetary policy.
“Assuming this holds and there is a path toward a cessation of hostilities, we can expect stabilization in equities, panic liquidation, and crucially, an unwinding of some of the very aggressive rate hikes which have been priced into markets,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY.
Since it is pointless to discuss where stocks are since moves are +/- 1-2% every minute, here is a quick recap of ...
Top Overnight News
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Trump postponed threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants for five days, pending the outcome of talks with Iran to end the war. Iran's semi-official local media denied any talks had taken place: BBG
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The Trump administration is telling foreign officials and others that it will not reschedule a summit between the president and Chinese leader Xi Jinping until the Iran war ends. Politico
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Donald Trump’s new tariff plans risk getting bogged down in protracted legal challenges as the president relies on obscure laws to wage his trade war after the top court in the US ruled many of his previous duties illegal. FT
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The BoJ is laying the groundwork for tweaks to its policy language in April, keeping alive the chance of a near-term interest rate hike as the weak yen and Middle East conflict pile inflationary pressures on the economy.
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Japanese companies have agreed to raise wages by more than 5% for a third consecutive year, early results from annual labor talks showed on Monday, reflecting sustained gains in pay that policymakers see as key to fostering durable economic growth. RTRS
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A Cuban official said the country is preparing for a possible military assault as Trump increases the economic pressure on the country. BBG
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LaGuardia Airport was closed until at least 2 p.m. after an Air Canada Express plane collided with a fire truck shortly after landing. Two pilots died in the crash. BBG
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Truckers are being “crushed” by the surge in diesel expense, and US consumers will soon feel the increase as the whole supply chain is forced to adjust prices higher to maintain profitability. WSJ
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Kevin Warsh is facing one of the most awkward Federal Reserve leadership transitions in decades. The economy has grown more complicated than when he promised interest-rate cuts last year while campaigning for President Trump to nominate him for the job. Even before the war in Iran sent energy prices higher, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure was heading in the wrong direction. The war threatens to push inflation higher still in the coming months, and investors now view rate increases to be more likely than cuts this year. WSJ
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ARE WE OVERSOLD? That has been one of the most frequent questions this week – and there is not a ton of reassuring evidence just yet. A tactical bounce is clearly possible given recent price action, but the broader setup does not yet point to capitulation. Locally, only ~14% of S&P stocks have hit oversold levels. For context, that figure reached over 50% in April ’25 and north of 40% during Q3 ’22: Goldman
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Earlier:
Market sentiment has flipped dramatically optimistic this morning just after 7am ET, following a post by President Trump on his TruthSocial feed that says due to "very good and productive conversations" on a "total resolution" of hostilities in the Middle East, the US will postpone "any and all military strikes" against Iran's energy infrastructure for five days...
The front-running of his self-imposed ultimatum deadline (around 7pmET tonight) has caught market participants off guard. Iran hasn’t confirmed the talks but, if they do, this is the first time we’re seeing any kind of opening for an off-ramp to end the war.
Iran has repeatedly said it wasn’t looking to sit down with the US.
There has been no comment from Israeli officials.
The reaction to Trump's statement - as you might expect - is a crash lower in crude...
...though still well above pre-war levels (as traders are still pricing in a prolonged hit from higher energy prices, even if there is relief following the latest headlines)...
...and spike higher in stocks...
...still below pre-war levels)...
What did the oil producers know?
Oil down 14% https://t.co/U69AoffNF2
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 23, 2026
Bonds and bullion are bid...
Rate-hike expectations have tumbled...
TACOs came early this week... or is it Mission Accomplished?
Iranian officials haven’t yet commented on Trump’s statement, but the headline banner on state TV sets the tone: “US President Retreats After Iran’s Decisive Threats.”
Billionaire hedge fund manager, Dan Loeb had some thoughts...
An oil trader friend of mine shared this Arabic saying.
— Daniel S. Loeb (@DanielSLoeb1) March 23, 2026
la muntasir wala mahzum
No victor no vanquished.
Let’s see what happens and how this is framed.
How long before Tehran officially denies contact?
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