Le Pen Poised To Win French Elections? New Poll Shows Commanding First-Round Lead

Aug 24, 2026 ·
Le Pen Poised To Win French Elections? New Poll Shows Commanding First-Round Lead

Summary:

  • Polymarket Odds And New Polls Show Le Pen Leading France's Presidential Race
  • New polling shows Marine Le Pen defeating every tested runoff opponent
  • Nomura says markets increasingly favor the "fiscally prudent" right over the reckless left
  • Nomura sees Europe lurching right during an 18-month election cycle

France's Le Pen Leads French Presidential Race

Early Monday, we previewed a Nomura report that expects an 18-month election cycle across Europe, shifting the continent toward populism, with elections scheduled this year in Germany and Sweden, followed by France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, and Poland in 2027.

Shortly after we released the note, new polling data from France showed, as The Guardian put it:

France loves a battle-scarred survivor. Charles de Gaulle, François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac clawed their way back from political failure to become presidents of the republic. There is a significant chance that Marine Le Pen will be next.

The latest Toluna-Harris poll shows Marine Le Pen winning every tested 2027 French presidential runoff:

  • Le Pen 68%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 32%
  • Le Pen 55%, Édouard Philippe 45%
  • Le Pen 57%, Gabriel Attal 43%

Le Pen's advantage extends beyond a matchup with the far left. She also holds double-digit leads over two leading establishment candidates, indicating that her National Rally party would enter the election as the clear favorite under these scenarios.

Polymarket odds of Le Pen winning the French presidential election currently stand at 32%.

Here's more:

Circling back to Nomura analyst Andrzej Szczepaniak's note, he expects that right-wing parties are positioned to make significant gains across Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK over the next 18 months.

Szczepaniak noted, "Five years ago, financial markets would not have seemed so at ease with such a prospect. But then again, these populist right-wing political parties were previously not so fiscally prudent as they are perceived to be today."

Meanwhile in Germany this weekend ...

He added, "Now, if anything, financial markets are much more concerned about populist left-wing parties being elected due to their desire to increase spending, often paid for through higher borrowing or higher taxes, which are likely to shut the engine off of already stuttering economies."

"Seeds Of Political Change": Nomura Sees Europe Lurching Right, And Markets Are Fine With It

Europe is entering an 18-month election cycle that could accelerate the continent's shift toward populism, with high-profile elections scheduled this year in Germany and Sweden, followed by France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, and Poland in 2027.

The much-needed political realignment reflects mounting public backlash against progressives in Brussels after years of uncontrolled mass migration from the Third World, deteriorating social cohesion, elevated violent crime, and nation-killing domestic policies that have accelerated deindustrialization.

At the same time, European manufacturers face intensifying pressure from China (the demise of VW Group), which is exploiting its cost advantages and state-supported industrial capacity to flood the struggling continent with cheap electric vehicles.

Andrzej Szczepaniak, a senior European economist and executive director at Nomura International in London, describes this combination of pressures as "the seeds of political change," warning that "politics in Europe is lurching towards more populism."

Szczepaniak says right-wing parties are positioned to make significant gains across Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK over the next 18 months.

"Five years ago, financial markets would not have seemed so at ease with such a prospect. But then again, these populist right-wing political parties were previously not so fiscally prudent as they are perceived to be today. Indeed, Italy's Giorgia Meloni is the standard-bearer for financial markets of how a populist right-wing political party can govern: fiscally prudent enough to show investors that the party can govern responsibly while focusing heavily on social issues, including immigration and culture wars, to keep grassroots supporters happy," the analyst said.

He pointed out, "Now, if anything, financial markets are much more concerned about populist left-wing parties being elected due to their desire to increase spending, often paid for through higher borrowing or higher taxes, which are likely to shut the engine off of already stuttering economies."

Focusing on Germany, Szczepaniak said the most immediate political shift will occur there, where Alternative for Germany has overtaken Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU in national polling. The AfD is polling at about 42% ahead of the Sept. 6 election in Saxony-Anhalt, potentially putting it within reach of becoming the first AfD government at the state level.

Dismal results for the governing coalition in Germany's three September state elections could threaten Merz's political survival. Szczepaniak sees a replacement of the chancellor as more likely than a snap national election because both the CDU/CSU and SPD risk losing additional seats to the AfD.

Germany's economic turmoil is contributing to that revolt against the left wing. Despite the government's so-called fiscal bazooka, consumer confidence remains weak. Voters are seeking an economic turnaround under new common-sense leadership.

The market is increasingly expecting Marine Le Pen of France to follow Meloni's playbook by maintaining fiscal restraint while focusing on tackling the mass migration invasion and cultural issues. Left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon, by contrast, has proposed higher spending and the cancellation of portions of France's debt, policies that Szczepaniak warns could cause French bond spreads to widen sharply. 

Whoever succeeds France's Emmanuel Macron will inherit a giant mess. France's debt-to-GDP ratio is set to explode to 120% next year, while political fragmentation is likely to prevent the structural reforms needed to revive growth or reduce the primary deficit. Szczepaniak remains bearish on France relative to Germany, Italy, and Spain.

The broader message is that right-wing populism is on the rise across Europe, and markets are welcoming such potential changes after years of failed left-wing control. Beyond the EU, left-wing regimes have been rejected across South America as right-wing governments take hold. 

Related:

The world is rejecting left-wing regimes because these governments are unserious, unproductive, and, in fact, proving only to be nation-killing.

Professional subscribers can read the full note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/24/2026 - 07:30